October sees '21 spring-like conditions regarding demand outpacing supply. The market is entrenching further into a Seller's playground.
The not so Short, yet Easy summary
Calling all homeowners... where are you? Supply continues to dwindle as sales volumes increase. The BIG story in residential real estate in Metro Vancouver is the ratio of listings to sales. Near annual peak conditions for sellers of townhouses and condos as low inventory reared its head again in October. Our supply is no where near meeting the demand for this time of the season.
Detached homes are the closest to a balanced market at nearly 1.5x; but its townhouses that is 3x a balanced market and condos are 2.25x. This all is putting pressure on pricing. Interest rates have been rising for the last 4 weeks. This is expected to be a stabilizer in the market? ....cooling demand. Hmmmm. We will see.
DETACHED SINGLE FAMILY - Metro Vancouver
1) Sales of detached homes in Oct'21 reached 1,090, a 15% increase from the 950 sales recorded in Sept'21 and a 18.4% decrease from Oct'20 (1,335).
2) Inventory - totaled 1,226 decreased 30% from Sept'21(1,597). Decreased 41% from Oct'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio - 33.6%. Compared to: Sept(25.5), Aug(25.3), July(25.5). 20%+ is a Sellers Market.
4) Pricing - HPI ($1.850M) 1-year change: up 20.5%. Up 1.2% from previous month.
TOWNHOUSES - Metro Vancouver
1) Sales totaled 603, a 4.6% increase compared to the 576
sales in Sept'21. A 22.9% increase from Oct'20.
2) Inventory - totaled 665 decrease of 15% from previous month. Decrease of 30% from Oct'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 64.4 compared to: Sept(53.1%),Aug(51.8%), July(47.8%). 20% is a Sellers Market. This is more than 3x !!
4) Pricing - HPI ($975,000) 1-year change: HPI up 18.5%. Increase of 1.2% from previous month.
CONDOS - Metro Vancouver
1) Sales of condo homes reached 1,801 in Oct'21, a 11.1% increase compared to the 1,621 sales last month (Sept'21). Oct'21 surpassed Oct'20 totals by 14.7%.
2) Inventory - 2,158 down 23% from Sept'21 and decrease of 25% in the last year.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 46.7% (condos) compared to: Sept(36.7%) Aug(39.2%), July(37.3%). 20% + is a Sellers Market. Almost 2.5x Seller's Market!!
4) Pricing - HPI($746,000) 1-year Change - HPI up 9.5%. increase of 1.1% from previous month.
- Oct'21 sales were 22.4% higher than the Oct 10-year average. (My thoughts is this can be attributed to simply more people, more homes, more transactions over the 10yrs)
- 4,049 newly listed homes for sale is 21.7% decrease from Sept'21.
- Total Active listings is 9,236; 2.5% inc from Aug'21.
- Sales-to-Active ratio for the property types: 43.5% (all properties combined) compared to: Sept(34.1%), Aug(35%), July(33.8%). 20%+ is Sellers Market.
- The MLS Home Price Index ($1.199M) rose 14% from Oct'20 and 1.1% from Sept'21.
- REBGV Sourced Summary
REFERENCE explanation: listing-to-sales ratio.
Arguably the MOST important stat considering Inventory & Sales combined is the listing-to-sales ratio. Our benchmarks are 12 and 20. When the ratio goes below 12, for continuous months, we are generally in a Buyer's market where prices can come down. When the ratio rises above 20 for continuous months, we are in a Seller's market where prices can rise.
Now that you have decided you want to get involved in a real estate purchase, what do you do first?
If you are planning to buy... get started ASAP. Have your financing in place and LOCK IN YOUR RATE - Interest rates are rising! Know your ratios as a Buyer. October got very tight for townhouses once again and now condos. Supply ratios depend on where you are purchasing, price and asset type as inventory fluctuates in availability. I can help with this preparation.
If you are thinking of selling in 2021, reach out to me, and lets talk about TECHNOLOGY, INVENTORY and TIMING!