Yawn.... steady as she goes.
The not so Short, yet Easy summary
Total sales in Vancouver decreased by 0.1% from August. Great news is the lost inventory mid-year is starting to re-appear as new listings increased by 28.2% from August '21 yet is a 19% decrease from Sept '20. Total active inventory is still shy, as we are 29% less than a year ago and 27% less than the 10-year avg.
Sales to Active ratio is in-line with the last 4 months at 34. 20 is a Seller's market; its safe to say 1.75 of a Seller's market. The main factor revealing the calm in the storm comes via pricing. Steady 0.5-1.2% increase in monthly prices across all 3 asset types have been seen over each of the last 4 months.
DETACHED SINGLE FAMILY - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of detached homes in Sept'21 reached 950, a 0.5% decrease from the 945 sales recorded in Aug'21 and a 27% decrease from Sept'20 (1,317).
2) Inventory - totaled 1,597 increased 38% from Aug'21. Decreased 22% from Sept'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio - 25.5%. Compared to: Aug(25.3), July(25.5%), June(27.5%). 20%+ is a Sellers Market.
4) Pricing - HPI ($1.828M) 1-year change: up 20.4%. Up 1% from previous month.
TOWNHOUSES - Greater Vancouver
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1) Sales totaled 576, a 6% decrease compared to the 610
sales in Aug'21. A 7.1% decrease from Sept'20.
2) Inventory - totaled 785 decrease of 7.4% from previous month. Decrease of 30% from Sept'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 53.1% compared to: Aug(51.8%),July(47.8%), June(49.2%). 20% is a Sellers Market. This is almost 2.5x !!
4) Pricing - 1-year change: HPI up 15%. Increase of 1.2% from previous month.
CONDOS - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of condo homes reached 1,621 in Aug'21, a 0.1% decrease compared to the 1,631 sales last month (Aug'21). Sept'21 surpassed Sept'20 totals(1,332) by 22%.
2) Inventory - 2,789 up 29.2% from Aug'21 and decrease of 15% in the last year.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 36.7 (condos) compared to: Aug(39.2%) July(37.3%), June(37.1%). 20% + is a Sellers Market. Almost 2x Seller's Market!!
4) Pricing - 1-year Change - HPI up 8.4%. increase of 0.5% from previous month.
OVERALL
- Sept'21 sales were 20.8% higher than the Sept 10-year average. (My thoughts is this can be attributed to simply more people, more homes, more transactions)
- 5,171 newly listed homes for sale is 28% increase from Aug'21.
- Total Active listings is 9,236; 2.5% inc from Aug'21.
- Sales-to-Active ratio for the property types: 34% (all properties combined) compared to: Aug(35), July(33.8%), June(34.7%). 20%+ is Sellers Market.
- The MLS Home Price Index ($1.186M) rose 13.8% from Sept'20 and 0.8% from Aug'21.
- REBGV Sourced Summary
REFERENCE explanation: listing-to-sales ratio.
Arguably the MOST important stat considering Inventory & Sales combined is the listing-to-sales ratio. Our benchmarks are 12 and 20. When the ratio goes below 12, for continuous months, we are generally in a Buyer's market where prices can come down. When the ratio rises above 20 for continuous months, we are in a Seller's market where prices can rise.
Now that you have decided you want to get involved in a real estate purchase, what do you do first?
If you are planning to buy... get started ASAP. Have your financing in place and be ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself - Interest rates are rising! Know your ratios as a Buyer. April/March was an absolute disaster for townhouse purchasers in East Vancouver. Where you are purchasing, price and asset type fluctuate in availability. I can help with this preparation.
If you are thinking of selling in 2021, reach out to me, and lets talk about TECHNOLOGY, INVENTORY and TIMING!
