The discussion now is that we are now seeing sales tallies 20% below the 10-year average, NOT 30%.
Sales volumes plateaued and had even shown increases. However, it's the inventory and the increased competition amongst Sellers that is the counter to a market recovery.
Our market slowdown is currently not due to a demand problem, its over supply that is negatively affecting pricing.
# OF SALES vs PRICES - MLS® Home Price Index
Compared to 1-year ago (Sept’24)
SFH Detached – sales UP 7%. Prices down 4.4%
Townhouse – sales DOWN 5.8%. Prices down 2.7%.
Condo – sales UP 1.5%. Prices down 4.4%.
Total sales are up 1.2% (20% below 10-year avg)
Compared to 1-year ago (Q3)
SFH Detached – sales UP 4.4%.
Townhouse – sales UP 3.3%.
Condo – sales DOWN 2.4%.
I like to use quarterly stats when I can as its a larger sample size that can be trusted more so re: trends.
Q3 – Home Price Index (all assets) Notables:
- New Westminster & Bowen Island - DOWN 0.9%, 0.6%
- West Vancouver saw 5% decrease
- Port Coquitlam 3.5% decrease
"Realtor Tip: If you own a condo/townhouse/SFH detached - just ask – I can give the performance of your city and neighbourhood over the last 3 month, 6 month, and 1-year"
The BEST sales performers: in Metro Vancouver (Q3‘25) vs Q3'24 🔥🔥
- Squamish detached sales up 50%
- New Westminster townhouses up 56%
- Coquitlam detached sales up 27%
- Whistler detached sales up 33%
The WEAKEST sales performers in Metro Vancouver (Q2‘25) vs Q2'24 ❄️
- Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows townhouses down 28%
- Port Coquitlam townhouses down 36%
- Squamish townhouses down 26%
- West Vancouver condos down 12%
After 7 interest rate reductions, the sales volume has stopped bleeding, and has plateaued in Metro Vancouver. Detached sales have seen the strongest recovery, yet its sales to active listing ratio is at 8.5 (Buyer's market) negates the sales victory. Buyer confidence is high due to their ability to negotiate, choose, and wait out Sellers.
(Realtor Tip: Successful strategy is to sell before you buy. In order to sell you MUST be PRICED well and SHOW even better in order to compete.)
INVENTORY
If we are going to talk about sales we must also consider inventory levels.
The Total # of properties currently listed on the MLS® is up 14.4% from Sept 2024 and 36.1% above the 10-year seasonal average.
“Easing prices, near-record high inventory levels, and increasingly favourable borrowing costs are offering those looking to purchase a home this fall with plenty of opportunity.” - Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics
Total Inventory:
Sept '24 - 14,932
Sept '25 - 17,079 - inc of 14.4%
10-year average - 12,553
SALES vs INVENTORY - RATIO
Across all of Metro Vancouver - 11.3
SFH - 8.5
Townhouse - 12.7
Condo - 13.3
What do these #'s mean?
0-11 - Buyer's Market,
12-19 - Balanced Market,
20+ - Seller's Market
Sales-to-Active listing ratio reveal that detached homes are clearly in a Buyers market, whereas townhouses and condos are on the lowest level of a balanced market, edging into a Buyer's market.
This tells us that it is not a free for all out there in the real estate jungle, but, the Buyers certainly are in control.
Realtor Tip: The inventory to sales ratio differ by city, asset and price point. Let's chat to see what the MICRO market sales/inventory ratio is waiting for your assets.
