March Real Estate Review - Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley February 2023 Stats
REAL ESTATE - On Fire February!!!!??
Also, financial details that are influencing the market and insight
Keeping you Updated with Greater Vancouver Real Estate Activity
My goal is to be your #1 resource for ANYTHING real estate. As a homeowner you deserve to know what is happening in today's market. We are seeing a catapult of change in our residential real estate market since spring '22. Tactical decision making is necessary and data will help drive it. I HAVE LOTS OF DATA!
CUSTOM NEIGHBOURHOOD STATS
I am able to give more context to the stats for your neighbourhood. Reply to this email with your civic address and I can provide a micro-neighbourhood report for you.
Customized with the following;(style: condos, townhouses, single family, homes with suites, condos with pools, rentals allowed, pets allowed, etc) AS REQUESTED by my readership.
CURRENT EVENT! Let us HOPE that interest rate hikes will stop in Q2, creating some predictability and confidence..... IT HAPPENED!!!!!
Metro Vancouver
Real Estate Review - Results for February'23
On Fire February!!!! ?
The not so Short, yet Easy summary
Get ready for the FIASCO! This is the beginning of the release of an avalanche of pent-up demand. Nearly 1 full year of 45-55% sales reduction. The market is being fed with predictability and confidence, via the 1st stall of interest rates (Mar 8/23), leading to the 1-way highway of absolute real estate chaos. The halt on interest rates is all that was needed for so many Buyers to take the plunge. Our desert like inventory is being eaten up and multiple offers are already back! From 2br condos DT under $825k to single family detached in Surrey under $1.3M. What are your plans for 2023? You better have a plan because its going to take some finesse to sell at optimal level and purchase before prices go on fire and it becomes an aggressive pursuit.
What has changed?
1) Interest rates were NOT increased for the 1st time in 1-year. Holding at 4.5% overnight rate in Q1 2023.
GOOD NEWS: 'Expectations' from the BOC (Bank of Canada) are that rates will begin decreasing in Q3 & Q4. If good news is chaos, this is great news!
BAD NEWS: Vancouver real estate is a frothing wild animal ready to hunt down all available real estate for purchase!
2) Inventory continues to be low. Its an incredible 'sandwich' the REBGV describes of low inventory (less supply) and higher borrowing costs (less demand).
DETACHED Single Family Home - 16.8%. Last month 10.2%
TOWNHOUSE - 30.1%. Last month 13.4%
CONDO - 25.8%. Last month 16.7%
STAGGERING INCREASES month to month!
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,123,400. This represents a 9.3 per cent decrease over February 2022 and a 1.1 per cent decrease compared to January 2022.
We have started a Sellers market for all property types. It is beginning.
More Financial and Lending insight
What Does This Mean for Qualifying for a Mortgage?
Stress test rates for variable and fixed-rate mortgages are going to increase, which means fewer people are going to qualify.
To pass the stress test, the 5-year qualifying rate is 7.9%. This means that it will price some people entirely out of the market and reduce the buying power for everyone. This is also the highest expected for the next 6 quarters.
Realtor Comment: THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE... STOP! unless the Bank of Canada foresees this % rate as a possibility. Yes, scary thought. Low probability?
What Does This Mean for Potential Mortgages?
Best options for borrowers:
A short-term fixed-rate mortgage – This is a similar strategy to the variable mortgage, betting that the rates will go down over the next year or two.
5-year fixed rate mortgage – If you think inflation is going to be sticking around for a while or if your finances are tight, this would be the best choice.
5-year variable rate mortgage – If you think that the BoC is finished raising their rates and that they might even go down sometime in 2023 or 2024, then this would be a good choice.
PREVIOUS MORTGAGE RATE FORECAST
UPDATED MORTGAGE RATE FORECAST
INVESTMENT PROPERTY RECOMMENDATION OF THE MONTH!
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House prices in the Fraser Valley posted a slight but positive bump in February after nearly a year of month-over-month decreases.
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 898 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® in February, an increase of 43.5 per cent over January but still only half as many as were recorded a year ago.
February new listings were also up, by 5.7 per cent over last month to 1,938 but 48.2 per cent lower than this time last year. Active listings grew by 7.0 per cent over January and by 16.3 per cent over February 2022.
““Together with a growing consensus suggesting that a pause on rate hikes is imminent, the positive signals from the market give families something to build on and plan for. As that starts to happen we expect to see sales pick up slowly but steadily heading into spring.” - Sandra Benz, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.
MLS® HPI Benchmark Price Activity
• Single Family Detached: : At $1,364,300, the Benchmark price for an FVREB single-family detached home increased 0.5 per cent compared to January 2023 and decreased 21.5 per cent compared to February 2022
• Townhomes: At $776,200, the Benchmark price for an FVREB townhome increased 0.4 per cent compared to January 2023 and decreased 13.8 per cent compared to February 2022.
• Condos: At $510,100, the Benchmark price for an FVREB apartment/condo increased 1.3 per cent compared to January 2023 and decreased 10.5 per cent compared to February 2022.
The composite Benchmark price in February was $946,700 and though relatively flat compared to January with a negligible gain of 0.5 per cent, it reverses the price slide the market has been experiencing since April 2022.
- FVREB sourced summary
Now that you have decided you want to get involved in a real estate purchase, what do you do first?
If you are planning to buy... get started ASAP. Have your financing in place and be ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself. I expect Prices to rise immediately. A short-term fixed-rate mortgage looks to bethe financial strategy.
Know your listing/sales ratios as a Buyer. Detached homes are currently at 13% list-to-sales ratio, which is part of a balanced market. This is currently the most vulnerable asset class.
If you are thinking of Buying in 2022, reach out to me, and lets talk about TECHNOLOGY, INVENTORY and TIMING!
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Current 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
4.84% From Chad Eliason - Quantus Mortgage Solutions. One of the most aggressive mortgage brokerage rates you can find. (5.19% 5-year avg discounted rate).
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Metro Vancouver - Get ready to compete! Detached sales to listing ratios are a balanced market. Townhouses and condos are in a Seller's market.
Fraser Valley - Detached housing has seen a 21.5% decrease in prices, Townhouses 13.8% decrease, Condos 10.5% decrease in prices.
If you are thinking of selling in 2023, reach out to me, and lets talk about COMPETITION, INVENTORY and TIMING!
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Shaun T. Carson - Investment Realtor, eXp Realty, 1500, 701 W Georgia St, Vancouver, BC V7Y 1G5, Canada, 236.888.8898
