Were real estate sales as bad as we think in Greater Vancouver? They were worse...
The Short, the Quick, the Easy summary
SALES
Homeowners in Greater Vancouver were bracing themselves for the inevitable slowdown sales, and got it. Sales reported by the GVREB stated that there was a 39% decrease in April '20 (1,109) from April '19 (1,829) sales tallies, and a 56% decrease from March '20. It should be recognized that for approx 6 months prior, we have been seeing increase of monthly sales from the same month in the previous year of 45-55%. Considering this, realistically sales were down 58% from expected 2,642 during 2020 normal conditions.
Justifiably, Buyers and Sellers in the majority have put real estate on hold. However, there is always a % of people that must buy and some that must sell, so there will always be activity in the marketplace.
Last month’s sales were 62.7% below the 10-year April sales average.
““Predictably, the number of home sales and listings declined in April given the physical distancing measures in place,” Colette Gerber, REBGV’s president-elect said. “People are, however, adapting. They’re working with their Realtors to get information, advice and to explore their options... ” says Colette Gerber, REBGV president-elect said.
How does last months sales break down?
Recognizing we are not in 'normal' conditions, statistic focus will be month-to-month until a regular rhythm in real estate activity is back in place.
1) Sales of detached homes in April '20 reached 388, 54% decrease from the 852 detached sales recorded in March '20.
2) Attached(townhouse) totalled 218, a 55.8% decrease compared to the 493
sales in April '20.
3) Sales of condos homes reached 503 in April '20, a 57.4% decrease compared to the 1,179 sales last month (March '20).
INVENTORY - Properties for Sale
The good news - Last month’s new listings for all property types were 47.9% compared to March'20. The fact that inventory levels are running parallel to sales reductions helps to create a more stable listing-to-sale ratio.
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,389, a 2.3% decrease compared to March '20 (9,606).
Our 2nd most important stat at this time is the listing-to-sales ratio. Our benchmarks are 12 and 20. When The ratio goes below 12, for continuous months, we are generally in a Buyer's market where prices can come down. When the ratio rises above 20 for continuous months, we are in a Seller's market where prices can rise.
The ratio for the property types are:
11.8 (all properties combined)
10 (detached homes)
14.7 (townhouses)
12.4 (apartments)
What does this mean?
We have just approached a market ratio that is in favour of Buyers.
Prices
All property types: 0.2% increase from March'20. “Home prices have held relatively steady in our region since the COVID-19 situation worsened in March,” Gerber said.
Now that we are clearly not in 'normal' conditions... what is the new normal?
- Hustle!
- Be the best Seller you can be
- Interest rates are low low low
- REBGV Sourced Summary
If you are thinking of selling in 2020, reach out to me, and lets talk about COMPETITION, INVENTORY and TIMING!
Number of new listings coming onto the market fell even faster than sales in April - the market remains stable in the Fraser Valley
According to FVREB historical data, last month’s sales were on par with April sales in 1983 through to 1985; and new listings are in line with numbers last seen in April 1981.
Chris Shields, President of the Board, observes, “Even though March’s initial numbers promised a banner spring, we expected the market to respond this way in April. Both sales and listings contracted in tandem as we all moved swiftly to
embrace the measures necessary to respond to this global pandemic. Given that the volume of new listings coming on stream fell even faster than sales in April, the market remains stable.”
Sales
Detached homes have seen a 54% decrease in sales volumes compared to March '20.
Attached Townhouses have seen a 48.1% decrease in sales compared to last month (March '19).
Condos saw a sales decrease of 54.7% compared to March'29.
Inventory
There were 5,997 active listings available in the Fraser Valley at the end of April, a decrease of 1.5% compared to March '20. This of significance due to the normal push for home sellers to reach the market this time of year. New listings dropped by 48.9% compared to March'20 new listings.
Prices
Median prices decreased 1.7% from March '20 to April'20.
- FVREB sourced summary
Considering COVID - 19 What does this mean?
As a Seller - Do you want the public in your home? Leverage digital marketing efforts such as virtual tours. Accept Subject to Viewing offers.
As a Buyer - will Sellers be allowing Buyers and the public into their homes? Open houses are NOT an option. only private showings. Virtual open houses & tours are happening! Sellers & Buyer agents may require masks, gloves in order to create a safe environment for all.
Real estate has been deemed an essential service. Realtors are ready to find safe solutions to make transactions for our clients (Buyers and Sellers) happen.
Here is my recent
Blog on COVID-19 and how we can respond in the real estate sector in Vancouver
ATTENTION FUTURE SELLERS
Fraser Valley - Inventory levels have held in relative side-step with sales. This has held pricing in place.
Greater Vancouver - The sales-to-active-listing ratio for all property types has dropped to the benchmark where prices could come down.
This tells us that detached house prices are currently stabilized, however, long terms effects re: price are on the verge to come down.
If you are thinking of selling in 2020, reach out to me, and lets talk about COMPETITION, INVENTORY and TIMING!
