The market did NOT rebound as I had hoped for September.
The not so Short, yet Easy summary
I was quick to give credit to predictable shifts in demand due to holiday and family summer events for decreased sales volumes in July/August. Therefore my 'against-the-grain' perspective wanted to believe there would be an increase of activity once everyone returned home and ready to execute immediate real estate needs.
Well, it looks like immediate real estate needs are even on hold, during our historically 2nd busiest transaction period. In fact, sales volumes in Metro Vancouver dropped by 10% from August'22 sales, and down 46% from Sept'21 totals, and 36% below the 10-year average. What did increase was new inventory; 27% increase more new homes were brought to market in Sept'22 vs Aug'22. Sellers are ready to make a move and participate, its Buyers who are now waiting.
Total inventory levels increased by 8% compared to Sept'21 and a saw a 3.2% increase from August'22.
Summary: In the last 30 days; sales are down 9%, inventory is up 8%. We are in Buyer friendly territory.
Sales to Active ratio for all property types is 16.9% = Balanced Market. It certainly feels like a Buyer's market, but for homes that are priced well, and good assets are able to sell quickly and with much interest.
DETACHED SINGLE FAMILY - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of detached homes in Sept'22 reached 525, compared to 517 sales recorded in Aug'22 (1.5% decrease) and a 44% decrease from Sept'21 (950).
2) Sales-to-Active ratio - 12.4%. Compared to: Aug(12.2), July(11.8%), June(38.8%). <12%+ is a Buyer's Market. Border of BUYER'S MARKET.
3) Pricing - HPI -$1.906M. 1-year change; up 3.8%.
TOWNHOUSES - Greater Vancouver
.
1) Sales totaled 274, compared to 355 in Aug'22 (29.5% dec.) and a 52.6% decrease compared to the 578 sales in Sept'21.
2) Sales-to-Active ratio 18.4% compared to: Aug(25.3%),July(20%), June(31.5%). 20% is a Sellers Market. BALANCED MARKET.
3) Pricing - HPI - $1.048M. 1-year change: HPI up 9.1%.
CONDOS - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of condo homes reached 888 in Sept'22, a 45.2% decrease compared to the 1,621 sales in Sept'21.
2) Sales-to-Active ratio 20.9% compared to: Aug(24.8%), July(24.5%), June(30.2%). 20% + is a Sellers Market. Border of BALANCED MARKET
3) Pricing - HPI $728,500. 1-year Change - HPI up 6.2%.
OVERALL
- Sept'22 sales were 35.7% below the June 10-year average.
- 4,229 newly listed homes for sale is 27.1% increase from Aug'22.
- Total Active listings is 9,971; 8% increase from Sept'21.
- Sales-to-Active ratio for the property types: 16.9% (all properties combined) BALANCED MARKET.
- The MLS Home Price Index $1.153M(all properties) rose 3.9% from Sept'21. Decrease of 8.5 over past 6 months.
- REBGV Sourced Summary
REFERENCE explanation: listing-to-sales ratio.
Arguably the MOST important stat considering Inventory & Sales combined is the listing-to-sales ratio. Our benchmarks are 12 and 20. When the ratio goes below 12, for continuous months, we are generally in a Buyer's market where prices can come down. When the ratio rises above 20 for continuous months, we are in a Seller's market where prices can rise.
Now that you have decided you want to get involved in a real estate purchase, what do you do first?
If you are planning to buy... get started ASAP. Have your financing in place and be ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself - Interest rates are rising!
Know your listing/sales ratios as a Buyer. Condos have now risen to the highest sales-to-listings and toughest asset type to compete in, over coming townhouses.
If you are thinking of Buying in 2022, reach out to me, and lets talk about TECHNOLOGY, INVENTORY and TIMING!
