Inventory is once again the focus... where is it?
The not so Short, yet Easy summary
Total sales fell 5.2% from July tallies, yet still 20.4% higher than the 10-year average. 9,005 current homes for sale vs 3,152 sold in August... this 35% list-to-sales ratio is 75% above a balanced market; barely 3 months of inventory on the market. Tough to play poker when everyone is holding onto their cards and none hit the table. These #'s are NOT surprising considered the vacation exodus en masse in the region for the summer month(s). We've been cooped up for 18-months... travel is the priority, not real estate for many Greater Vancouverites.
Moving forward I am expecting a LOT of engagement in September. We saw increased showings and activity late August. Sellers who have been on the fence will be activated. It will be very interesting to see what September brings us, as it will set the tone for the next 3 months.
DETACHED SINGLE FAMILY - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of detached homes in Aug'21 reached 945, a 11% decrease from the 1,050 sales recorded in July'21 and a 14% increase from Aug'20 (1,095).
2) Inventory - totaled 1,224 Decreased 9.1% from July'21. Decreased 50% from Aug'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio - 25.3%. Compared to: July(25.5%), June(27.5%), May(29.8%). 20%+ is a Sellers Market.
4) Pricing - HPI ($1.807M) 1-year change: up 20%. Up 0.3% from previous month.
TOWNHOUSES - Greater Vancouver
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1) Sales totaled 576, a 6% decrease compared to the 610
sales in July'21. A 7.1% decrease from Aug'20.
2) Inventory - totaled 638 decrease of 7.4% from previous month. Decrease of 63% from Aug'20.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 51.8% compared to: July(47.8%),June(49.2%), May(53.8%). 20% is a Sellers Market. This is 2.5x !!
4) Pricing - 1-year change: HPI up 16.5%. Increase of 0.3% from previous month.
CONDOS - Greater Vancouver
1) Sales of condo homes reached 1,631 in Aug'21, a 2.2% decrease compared to the 1,666 sales last month (July'21). Aug'21 surpassed Aug'20 totals(1,332) by 22%.
2) Inventory - 2,155 down 7.7% from July'21 and decrease of 35% in the last year.
3) Sales-to-Active ratio 39.2% (condos) compared to: July(37.3%) June(37.1%), May(43.5%). 20% + is a Sellers Market. 2x Seller's Market!!
4) Pricing - 1-year Change - HPI up 7.6%. increase of 0.3% from previous month.
OVERALL
- Aug'21 sales were 20.4% higher than the Aug 10-year average. (July'21 sales were 13.3% higher than the 10-year avg)
- 4,032 newly listed homes for sale is 7.9% less than July'21.
- Total Active listings is 9,005; 8.6% lower than July'21.
- Sales-to-Active ratio for the property types: 35% (all properties combined) compared to: July(33.8%), June(34.7%), May(38.9%). 20%+ is Sellers Market.
- The MLS Home Price Index ($1.176M) rose 13.2% from Aug'20 and 0.1% from July'21.
- REBGV Sourced Summary
REFERENCE explanation: listing-to-sales ratio.
Arguably the MOST important stat considering Inventory & Sales combined is the listing-to-sales ratio. Our benchmarks are 12 and 20. When the ratio goes below 12, for continuous months, we are generally in a Buyer's market where prices can come down. When the ratio rises above 20 for continuous months, we are in a Seller's market where prices can rise.
Now that you have decided you want to get involved in real estate what do you do first?
If you are planning to buy... get started ASAP. Have your financing in place and be ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself. Know your ratios as a Buyer. April/March was an absolute disaster for townhouse purchasers in East Vancouver. Where you are purchasing, price and asset type fluctuate in availability. I can help with this preparation.
If you are thinking of selling in 2021, reach out to me, and lets talk about TECHNOLOGY, INVENTORY and TIMING!
